中国移动能卖出多少部iPhone？
2013年12月22日 16:53 发布者：1770309616
Apple Debate: How Many iPhones Will China Mobile Sell?中国移动能卖出多少部iPhone？China Mobile, the world’s largest wireless carrier, will start taking pre-orders for Apple’s iPhone. This is great news for Apple, who will finally get in with the company that has the widest share of the biggest market on Earth, as well as for China Mobile, who can finally tout Apple’s flagship iPhone 5S.周四，全球最大无线运营商中国移动开始接受苹果iPhone预订。这对苹果来说是个好消息，因为他们终于和拥有世界上最大无线市场份额的那家公司拉上了关系。这对中国移动来说也是个好消息，因为他们终于可以经销苹果旗舰手机iPhone 5S了。China Telecom (181 million). So there’s certainly a huge new market here for Apple to tap.二者的合作将使iPhone销量增长多少？没人知道。中国移动拥有逾7.55亿用户，超过了苹果后两大中国运营商合作伙伴：中国联通（2.5亿用户）和中国电信（1.81亿用户）用户的总和。因此，肯定有一个巨大的新市场可供苹果开发利用。
But analysts disagree as to how many new China Mobile customers are woo-able. Some already have older Apple products, and many, many others are too poor to afford such an expensive purchase. Some customers may decamp from China Unicom and China Telecom, much like those US customers who left AT&T但在将有多少中国移动用户会成为iPhone新买家的问题上，分析师们意见不一。有些用户已经拥有老款的苹果产品，而其他很多用户太穷，买不起昂贵的苹果手机。有些客户可能会脱离中国联通和中国电信，就像美国那些从AT&T转投终于可以销售iPhone的威瑞森电信（Verizon）的客户那样。但他们只是把竞争对手的iPhone换成中国移动的iPhone，这不会增加苹果总的用户基础。
Ultimately, we’re left with more questions than answers. Check out the wide range of opinion among analysts in recent days. Here’s what each research group projects for Apple’s incremental gain in sales for the next year due to China Mobile:最终，我们得到的疑问比答案更多。请看最近分析师们作出的预测，差异很大。以下是各个调研机构对明年中国移动将为苹果带来多少新增销量的预测：
* Bernstein Research says 15 million.* 伯恩斯坦研究公司（Bernstein Research）说有 1,500万部 。
* Merrill Lynch predicts fewer than 10 million, says this deal is overhyped.* 美林（Merrill Lynch）预测 不到1,000万部 ，称这项交易被夸大。
* UBS also goes for the low end, with 10 million.* 瑞银（UBS）也给出了预测范围的低端值，为 1,000万部 。
* ISI, on the other hand, goes high: 38.7 million.* 美国科技信息研究所（ISI）则给出了预测范围的高端值，为 3,870万部 。
* R.W. Baird is covering all their bases, estimating 20 to 25 million, but with a downside of 12.5 million and upside potential of 30 million.* R.W. Baird公司覆盖了上述所有预测值，估计为 2,000万到2,500万部 ，但同时给出了 1,250万部 的下限和 3,000万部 的上限。
* Cantor Fitzgerald gives a range of 20 to 24 million.* 康托菲茨杰拉德公司（Cantor Fitzgerald）给出了 2,000万到2,400万部 的区间。
* Piper Jaffray says 17 million.* 派杰（Piper Jaffray）说有 1,700万部。
* And last but not least, Bank of America projects 20-25 million.* 最后，美国银行（Bank of America）预测为 2,000万到2,500万部 。
Who do you believe? Apple stock fell slightly on Wednesday, 0.74%, ahead of Thursday’s first day of pre-orders.你相信谁的预测？周三，也就是周四中国移动开始接受iPhone预订的前一天，苹果股价微降0.74%。
[*]analyst['ænəlist]video
n. 分析者；精神分析医师；分解者
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adj. 最大的（big的最高级）
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n. 旗舰；（作定语）一流；佼佼者
[*]transplantvideo
vt. 移植；迁移；使移居n. 移植；移植器官；被移植物；移居者vi. 移植；迁移；移居
[*]predictvideo
vt. 预报，预言；预知vi. 作出预言；作预料，作预报
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n. 下降趋势；底侧adj. 底侧的
[*]hypevideo
n. 大肆宣传；皮下注射vt. 大肆宣传；使…兴奋
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n. 交换；交换之物vt. 与...交换；以...作交换vi. 交换；交易
怎样把工作变成乐趣？
如今大多数公司的管理理念核心在于控制——控制员工、控制信息、控制异常情况。但实践证明，充分释放和发挥员工潜力的秘密在于——快乐！
长久以来，许多企业的管理观念都是“控制”——控制员工、控制信息、控制异常状况。显然，这种恐惧度高、信赖度低的企业文化无法让每位员工在日常工作中充分释放和发挥潜力，包括丰富的想象力、积极性和热情。
正确的模式应该是什么呢？想要建立一个激励员工、吸引员工、甚至让员工得到提升（同时在这个过程中拿出非凡的表）的企业，需要什么呢？
位于密歇根州安阿伯市的门罗创新公司（Menlo Innovations）是一家发展迅速的软件公司。对这家公司的理查德•谢里登和他的同事而言，以上所有问题的答案就只有一个词：快乐。没错，就是快乐。正如谢里登所言：“快乐这个概念在企业界没有立足之处。当然，它听上去无利可图。”然而，“快乐就是我们这里的核心理念……它决定了我们做什么，怎么做。这是我们整个团队共同秉持的唯一理念。”
门罗公司没有行政管理系统。这里没有老板、没有经理、没有秘密、没有规定、没有墙壁、也没有恐惧。取而代之的是一套高明的机制和非常实用的途径来促进合作、鼓励群体决策、提高专注度、改善工作表现，包括：小组合作（而且每周更换组员），严格（但非常人道的）每周40小时工作时间制，由同事领导的称作“终极面试”的招聘方式，完全原创的（小清新模拟式）、采用书面形式制定计划、确定工作重点的方法，每天13分钟的全体大会，以及每周与客户举办的“展示说明”大会。
谈到门罗无比聪明和非常人性化的工作方式，实在有太多东西值得说。因此我们很高兴计划在美国东部时间12月5日上午11点举办 “揭秘：门罗公司共同创始人暨首席执行官理查德•谢里登特立独行的企业文化”。我们将探讨建立一个以快乐为基础的公司文化背后的奥秘，畅谈在如此自由、实验、开放的同时，还能提高生产力和原创力，并保持步调一致意味着什么。我们将了解到门罗重新设计诸多核心管理模式的细节。理查德即将付梓的著作《快乐公司》（Joy, Inc.）中的主题和见解，揭秘活动的参与者也可以先睹为快。
理查德将解答大家的疑问，所以请把它们发布在这里的留言板上（也可以在揭秘期间通过Twitter的#joyinc的话题参与活动）。与此同时，一定要去看看理查德参加“无处不在的领导人挑战”（Leaders Everywhere Challenge）的获奖作品。
如果门罗创新公司的原创工作模式背后的创意让你得到了启发，欢迎在Digital Freedom Challenge上分享你的故事和大胆的想法。点击此处了解更多。（财富中文网）
译者：严匡正
For too long, the ruling ideology of too many organizations has been control -- controlling people, controlling information, controlling deviations from the norm. Of course, that kind of high fear, low trust culture is exactly the wrong design for unleashing and mobilizing the full potential -- the full imagination, initiative, passion—of every single person, every single day.
But what is the right design? What would it take to build an organization that inspires, engages, even elevates people (and produces extraordinary performance in the process)?
For Richard Sheridan and his colleagues at Menlo Innovations, a fast-growing software company based in Ann Arbor, MI, the answer to all of the above is one little word: joy. Yes, joy. As Sheridan puts it, "it's a concept that has no place in the corporate world. It certainly doesn't sound profitable." Yet, "joy is the core belief of our workplace.... It defines what we do and how we do it. It's the single shared belief of our entire team."
There is no chain of command at Menlo. There are no bosses, no managers, no secrets, no rules, no walls, and no fear. What they have instead are a series of clever mechanisms and radically practical approaches to cultivating collaboration, collective decision-making, focus, and performance -- from working in pairs (and rotating partners on a weekly basis), to a strict (and strictly humane) 40-hour work week, to a peer-led approach to hiring called "Extreme Interviewing," to a wholly original (and refreshingly analog) paper-based approach to planning and setting priorities, to daily 13-minute all-hands meetings and weekly "show and tell" sessions with customers.
There is so much to unpack when it comes to Menlo's relentlessly clever and deeply human approach to work. Which is why we're delighted to be hosting a Maverick Hangout with Menlo Innovations co-founder and CEO Richard Sheridan on Thursday, December 5 at 11am ET. We'll dive into the principles behind building a joy-based culture, talk about what it means to unleash so much freedom, experimentation, openness and amp up productivity, ingenuity, and alignment at the same time. And we'll get into the details of Menlo's redesign of so many core management practices. Hangout participants will get a sneak peek into the themes and insights in Rich's soon-to-be-published book, Joy, Inc.
Rich will be answering your questions, so please tee them up in the comments section here (and via Twitter during the Hangout #joyinc). In the meantime, be sure to check out Rich's winning Leaders Everywhere Challenge entry.
And if you're inspired by the ideas behind Menlo Innovations' original design for work, share your own story or bold idea in the Digital Freedom Challenge. Learn more here.